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MARKET NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

AUD/USD dragged to session low on dollar demand, RBA worries

Analysis ,
AUD/USD dragged to session low on dollar demand, RBA worries

AUD/USD falls to a low of 0.7260




Price is now looking for a firm break below the 100-hour MA (red line) and the 38.2 retracement level @ 0.7272 and if sellers can hold a break there, the near-term bullish bias will be eliminated. The next key support level to eye for will then be the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 0.7252 and the swing region support around 0.7250 which coincides with the 50.0 retracement level as well.

This comes as the dollar is strengthening back across the board and we're also seeing RBA's Lowe expressing worries with regards to the housing market and credit earlier.

Fall back below the 200-hour MA and near-term price bias turns more bearish. That will help to reinvigorate sellers to extend a move back to the downside particularly when risk assets are not faring all too well on the day.

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Monday, November 19, 2018

EURUSD moves to new highs and looks to challenge topside targets

Analysis ,
EURUSD moves to new highs and looks to challenge topside targets

The 1.14657 area is eyed

The EURUSD has moved higher and in the process is looking to challenge the 61.8% of the move down from he October 16 high and a topside trend line off October 22 and November 7 highs a the 1.14657 area.  That level is a key bias level for the buyers and the sellers. 

Housing data today was weak and lower stocks are helping to weaken the USD. 


The price earlier in the day, moved above the 50% retracement and then waffled mostly above that midpoint level (at 1.14178 - see earlier post) Staying above in the NY session, has given the buyers more of a reason to push the upside.  

via : forexlive

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Friday, November 9, 2018

USD/CAD rises to two-month high as oil sinks

Analysis ,
USD/CAD rises to two-month high as oil sinks

USD/CAD hits a high of 1.3198 for the first time since 10 September


It's getting ugly for oil as WTI breaks below $60 and extends its fall sharply. At the same time, Brent is below $70 and dropping as well. WTI is down by almost 2% on the day now falling to $59.50.

In turn, this is weighing on the loonie and USD/CAD has jumped to a two-month high as a result. Price is now closing in on the 1.3200 handle but buyers will be aiming towards the September high @ 1.3226. Break above that and it opens up a move towards the July high @ 1.3290.

Buyers are in complete control in the pair now as almost everything is working against the loonie now. We have the Keystone XL pipeline being blocked by the courts. Risk is also shaping up to be negative on the day, weighing on commodity currencies/risk assets. And now oil prices are breaking key psychological levels to the downside.

For good measure, the dollar remains underpinned following the Fed statement overnight. This is setting up for a good platform for price to run higher in USD/CAD still in the session ahead.

via : forexlive

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Thursday, November 8, 2018

EUR/USD: Watch out for the "landmines" in the day ahead

Analysis ,
EUR/USD: Watch out for the "landmines" in the day ahead

Large expiries likely to keep EUR/USD between 1.14 and 1.15 until tomorrow


Price continues to sit in between the two retracement levels (23.6 and 38.2) on the daily chart as buyers are unable to find a breakthrough above 1.1500 while sellers are lacking the conviction to reclaim control on the near-term chart.

But for the pair, it's very much a case of navigating through the "mine field" in the day ahead. And I would expect price action to be contained between the 1.1400 and 1.1500 level as long as the Fed doesn't pull off any surprises later today (and I expect the Fed to play by the book on that one).

Here's a look at the option expiries list tomorrow for the pair:

  • 1.1375 (€1.3 bn)
  • 1.1400 (€2.2 bn)
  • 1.1425 (€3.2 bn)
  • 1.1500 (€6.4 bn)

That's quite a sizable chunk sitting there at the 1.1500 handle and could potentially draw price action to gyrate towards that level in the sessions to come but there's also a decent amount sitting closer to the bottom near 1.1400 as well.

So far this session, we're not seeing any real conviction for any directional moves with the market keeping an eye on the Fed later but if we do see action in EUR/USD, do be mindful of the "landmines" that are sitting at the levels highlighted above.

Until the "landmines" are "deactivated" i.e. expiries roll off, I reckon only then will we be able to see a much clearer trend in the pair.

via : forexlive

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Wednesday, November 7, 2018

USD/CAD – Canadian dollar higher as risk appetite returns after US election

Analysis ,
USD/CAD – Canadian dollar higher as risk appetite returns after US election
The Canadian dollar has posted gains in the Wednesday session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3080, down 0.33% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases Ivey PMI, which is expected to improve to 50.9 points. There are no major U.S releases on the schedule. On Thursday, Canada releases Housing Starts. In the U.S, the Federal Reserve will set the benchmark rate and release a rate statement. We’ll also get a look at unemployment claims.
Investors expressed relief that the uncertainty over the U.S mid-term elections is over, with both the Republicans and  Democrats able to point to a victory of sorts. The markets were pleased that President Trump did not suffer a stinging defeat. Had the Democrats taken back both houses of Congress, Trump would have been a lame duck for the next two years, and he would have had great difficulty passing any further market-friendly reforms. The mixed results have improved risk appetite, and the Canadian dollar has responded with gains on Wednesday.
Participation was high in the mid-term elections on Tuesday, and voters rendered a split-decision. The Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010, but the Republicans maintained control of the Senate, and have increased their majority. The results are a setback for President Trump, as the Democrats will be in a stronger position to derail Trump’s plans to boost fiscal stimulus and lower taxes.
USD/CAD Fundamentals
Wednesday (November 7)
  • 10:00 Canadian Ivey PMI. Estimate 50.9
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.0M
  • 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction
  • 15:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 15.7B
Thursday (November 8)
  • 8:15 Canadian Housing Starts. Estimate 199K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 214K
  • 14:00 US FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <2.25%
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 7, 2018
USD/CAD, November 7 at 7:45 DST
Open: 1.3124 High: 1.3159 Low: 1.3073 Close: 1.3080
USD/CAD Technical
S3S2S1R1R2R3
1.2733128311.29701.30991.31981.3292
USD/CAD posted small losses in the Asian session. The pair moved higher early in European trade, but has reversed directions and moved lower.
  • 1.2970 is providing support
  • 1.3099 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2970 to 1.3099
Further levels in both directions:
  • Below: 1.2970, 1.2831 and 1.2733
  • Above: 1.3099, 1.3198, 1.3292 and 1.3383
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Tuesday, November 6, 2018

USDJPY break to new month high but fails.

Analysis ,
USDJPY break to new month high but fails.

Dips below trend line, but nor running away

The USDJPY broke to a new month high (highest level since October 8th) at 113.38, but the break was not sustained and the buyers turned to sellers. 


The fall has also now taken the price below the upward sloping trend line, giving sellers more comfort in their position.  The underside of the trend line comes in at 113.26 currently. That level and the 113.32-38 are risk levels for shorts looking for a top and lower levels.

Having said that, it is not all "Sell. Sell. Sell".  The 100 hour MA (blue line at 113.037) is a level that needs to be broken and remain broken. The lows today could only get to 1.13096. We currently are trading at 113.20 as I type.  

You can go either way with this.  Yes, the run to new highs failed after a 7 pip run higher. The 100 hour MA remains below the currently price and that suggests sellers may be wining a battle here and there, but until that level can be broken, they are just a few little battles. There is room to go before they turn the momentum more to the sell side. 

via : forexlive

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Wednesday, October 31, 2018

GBP/JPY buyers look to extend move above 100-hour moving average

Analysis ,
GBP/JPY buyers look to extend move above 100-hour moving average

GBP/JPY is holding a break above the 100-hour MA




That means that the near-term bearish bias in the pair has now turned to neutral but I'd wait for a break back above this week's high of 144.41 for further confirmation of that. The pound is the best performing major currency on the day as it recovers some poise after bouncing off support levels across multiple charts and this is one of them.


As cable found support from the 1.2700 handle, GBP/JPY also leaned on support from the 76.4 retracement level @ 143.39 earlier this week before bouncing higher as we're seeing now. There's still a lack of a meaningful break back towards the upside but for buyers, finding a base is always a good thing.

If price starts to challenge the 200-hour MA @ 144.95, I'll be more inclined to believe that we could see an extension back higher in the pair. Otherwise, this is still merely a correction on the way lower for the pound.

via : forexlive

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